USA vs Paraguay
World Cup · Saturday, June 13, 2026
1:00 AM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
View current leaderboard standings →Predictions Review
The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Fingerprint Analysis
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Predicted scoreline
1-0Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. USA listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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