World Cup 2026 Predictions
Tournament winner tracker
Simulations: 10,000
Updated: 255h ago
5 AI models predict tournament outcomes via Monte Carlo simulation. Each model has unique biases we've measured through behavioral fingerprinting.
Who will win the World Cup?
5 AI models. 10,000 simulations each. Here's what they predict.
4/5 Models Agree
🇧🇷
Brazil
10.6%5-model raw average
Runner-up predictions
🏴
England
3 models: GPT-5.4, Claude, Grok
🇦🇷
Argentina
1 model: GPT-5.5
🇭🇷
Croatia
1 model: Gemini
Win probability by model
One bar per model. Bar length = that model's estimated chance the team wins the tournament. Toggle models on/off to compare.
0%
4%
8%
11%
15%
1🇧🇷Brazil10.6%
2🏴England8.9%
3🇦🇷Argentina8.7%
4🇪🇸Spain7.4%
5🇫🇷France7.2%
6🇵🇹Portugal6.9%
7🇳🇱Netherlands5.5%
8🇩🇪Germany5.3%
9🇭🇷Croatia3.9%
10🇨🇴Colombia3.6%
11🇧🇪Belgium3.5%
12🇲🇽Mexico2.2%
GPT-5.4
GPT-5.5
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 3
Predicted tournament path
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Predicted champion
🇧🇷🏆
Brazil
10.6% to win
vs predicted runner-up 🏴 England (8.9%)
Final
2 teams
🇧🇷BRA10.6%
🏴ENG8.9%
Semi Finals
4 teams
🇧🇷BRA10.6%
🏴ENG8.9%
🇦🇷ARG8.7%
🇪🇸ESP7.4%
Quarter Finals
8 teams
🇧🇷BRA10.6%
🏴ENG8.9%
🇦🇷ARG8.7%
🇪🇸ESP7.4%
🇫🇷FRA7.2%
🇵🇹POR6.9%
🇳🇱NED5.5%
🇩🇪GER5.3%
Round of 16
16 teams
🇧🇷BRA10.6%
🏴ENG8.9%
🇦🇷ARG8.7%
🇪🇸ESP7.4%
🇫🇷FRA7.2%
🇵🇹POR6.9%
🇳🇱NED5.5%
🇩🇪GER5.3%
🇭🇷CRO3.9%
🇨🇴COL3.6%
🇧🇪BEL3.5%
🇲🇽MEX2.2%
🇺🇾URU2.2%
🏴NOR1.9%
🇨🇭SUI1.8%
🇸🇳SEN1.6%
Round of 32
32 teams
🇧🇷BRA10.6%
🏴ENG8.9%
🇦🇷ARG8.7%
🇪🇸ESP7.4%
🇫🇷FRA7.2%
🇵🇹POR6.9%
🇳🇱NED5.5%
🇩🇪GER5.3%
🇭🇷CRO3.9%
🇨🇴COL3.6%
🇧🇪BEL3.5%
🇲🇽MEX2.2%
🇺🇾URU2.2%
🏴NOR1.9%
🇨🇭SUI1.8%
🇸🇳SEN1.6%
🏴AUT1.5%
🏴ECU1.3%
🇯🇵JPN1.3%
🇲🇦MAR1.2%
🏴ALG1.2%
🏴TUR1.0%
🏴IRN0.9%
🇺🇸USA0.9%
🇨🇦CAN0.8%
🇰🇷KOR0.8%
🏴PAR0.6%
🏴SWE0.6%
🏴COD0.6%
🏴EGY0.6%
🏴CIV0.5%
🇦🇺AUS0.5%
Compare by model:
Full team rankings
| # | Team ↕ | Raw Avg ↕ | 5.4 ↕ | 5.5 ↕ | Claude ↕ | Gemini ↕ | Grok ↕ | Spread ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇷BrazilBRA | 10.6% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 14.9% | 12.1pp |
| 2 | 🏴EnglandENG | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 10.8% | 7.3pp |
| 3 | 🇦🇷ArgentinaARG | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 5.8pp |
| 4 | 🇪🇸SpainESP | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 6.2pp |
| 5 | 🇫🇷FranceFRA | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 5.7pp |
| 6 | 🇵🇹PortugalPOR | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 1.4pp |
| 7 | 🇳🇱NetherlandsNED | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 3.0pp |
| 8 | 🇩🇪GermanyGER | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 3.6pp |
| 9 | 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.0pp |
| 10 | 🇨🇴ColombiaCOL | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 2.6pp |
| 11 | 🇧🇪BelgiumBEL | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 1.8pp |
| 12 | 🇲🇽MexicoMEX | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2pp |
| 13 | 🇺🇾UruguayURU | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.4pp |
| 14 | 🇳🇴NorwayNOR | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.6pp |
| 15 | 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSUI | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6pp |
| 16 | 🇸🇳SenegalSEN | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 2.5pp |
| 17 | 🇦🇹AustriaAUT | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8pp |
| 18 | 🇪🇨EcuadorECU | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6pp |
| 19 | 🇯🇵JapanJPN | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.6pp |
| 20 | 🇲🇦MoroccoMAR | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.8pp |
| 21 | 🏴AlgeriaALG | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 2.4pp |
| 22 | 🇹🇷TurkeyTUR | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.0pp |
| 23 | 🏴IranIRN | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 1.6pp |
| 24 | 🇺🇸United StatesUSA | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.4pp |
| 25 | 🇨🇦CanadaCAN | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 1.8pp |
| 26 | 🇰🇷South KoreaKOR | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.0pp |
| 27 | 🇵🇾ParaguayPAR | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 1.2pp |
| 28 | 🇸🇪SwedenSWE | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.1pp |
| 29 | 🏴DR CongoCOD | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 1.8pp |
| 30 | 🏴EgyptEGY | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.0pp |
| 31 | 🏴Ivory CoastCIV | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.1pp |
| 32 | 🇦🇺AustraliaAUS | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.9pp |
| 33 | 🇬🇭GhanaGHA | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 1.4pp |
| 34 | 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCZE | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8pp |
| 35 | 🏴UzbekistanUZB | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 1.2pp |
| 36 | 🏴ScotlandSCO | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 1.7pp |
| 37 | 🏴Cape VerdeCPV | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.2pp |
| 38 | 🏴BosniaBIH | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 1.1pp |
| 39 | 🏴PanamaPAN | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7pp |
| 40 | 🏴Saudi ArabiaKSA | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7pp |
| 41 | 🏴IraqIRQ | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9pp |
| 42 | 🏴New ZealandNZL | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.1pp |
| 43 | 🏴JordanJOR | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7pp |
| 44 | 🏴South AfricaRSA | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.9pp |
| 45 | 🏴TunisiaTUN | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6pp |
| 46 | 🏴QatarQAT | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.6pp |
| 47 | 🏴HaitiHAI | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3pp |
| 48 | 🏴CuracaoCUW | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4pp |
1🇧🇷Brazil
10.6%
spread: 12.1pp
2🏴England
8.9%
spread: 7.3pp
3🇦🇷Argentina
8.7%
spread: 5.8pp
4🇪🇸Spain
7.4%
spread: 6.2pp
5🇫🇷France
7.2%
spread: 5.7pp
6🇵🇹Portugal
6.9%
spread: 1.4pp
7🇳🇱Netherlands
5.5%
spread: 3.0pp
8🇩🇪Germany
5.3%
spread: 3.6pp
9🇭🇷Croatia
3.9%
spread: 3.0pp
10🇨🇴Colombia
3.6%
spread: 2.6pp
11🇧🇪Belgium
3.5%
spread: 1.8pp
12🇲🇽Mexico
2.2%
spread: 2.2pp
13🇺🇾Uruguay
2.2%
spread: 0.4pp
14🇳🇴Norway
1.9%
spread: 0.6pp
15🇨🇭Switzerland
1.8%
spread: 1.6pp
16🇸🇳Senegal
1.6%
spread: 2.5pp
17🇦🇹Austria
1.5%
spread: 0.8pp
18🇪🇨Ecuador
1.3%
spread: 0.6pp
19🇯🇵Japan
1.3%
spread: 1.6pp
20🇲🇦Morocco
1.2%
spread: 1.8pp
21🏴Algeria
1.2%
spread: 2.4pp
22🇹🇷Turkey
1.0%
spread: 1.0pp
23🏴Iran
0.9%
spread: 1.6pp
24🇺🇸United States
0.9%
spread: 1.4pp
25🇨🇦Canada
0.8%
spread: 1.8pp
26🇰🇷South Korea
0.8%
spread: 1.0pp
27🇵🇾Paraguay
0.6%
spread: 1.2pp
28🇸🇪Sweden
0.6%
spread: 1.1pp
29🏴DR Congo
0.6%
spread: 1.8pp
30🏴Egypt
0.6%
spread: 1.0pp
31🏴Ivory Coast
0.5%
spread: 1.1pp
32🇦🇺Australia
0.5%
spread: 0.9pp
33🇬🇭Ghana
0.4%
spread: 1.4pp
34🇨🇿Czech Republic
0.4%
spread: 0.8pp
35🏴Uzbekistan
0.4%
spread: 1.2pp
36🏴Scotland
0.4%
spread: 1.7pp
37🏴Cape Verde
0.4%
spread: 1.2pp
38🏴Bosnia
0.4%
spread: 1.1pp
39🏴Panama
0.3%
spread: 0.7pp
40🏴Saudi Arabia
0.3%
spread: 0.7pp
41🏴Iraq
0.3%
spread: 0.9pp
42🏴New Zealand
0.3%
spread: 1.1pp
43🏴Jordan
0.2%
spread: 0.7pp
44🏴South Africa
0.2%
spread: 0.9pp
45🏴Tunisia
0.2%
spread: 0.6pp
46🏴Qatar
0.2%
spread: 0.6pp
47🏴Haiti
0.1%
spread: 0.3pp
48🏴Curacao
0.1%
spread: 0.4pp
Showing 48 of 48 teams • Click row to expand
How it works
1️⃣
Identical input
Every model receives the same data — FIFA rankings, recent form, injuries, and news. No model does independent research, so any difference between predictions comes purely from how that model reasons.
2️⃣
Match predictions
Each model predicts win/draw/loss probabilities for every possible match. Different models reach different answers from the same evidence.
3️⃣
Monte Carlo
10,000 tournament simulations per model. Random sampling based on probabilities gives win/advance rates.
Edge prediction coming soon
We're developing a bias-corrected ensemble that weights each AI based on its known blind spots. For now, predictions show raw model outputs. Learn about The Edge methodology →
Follow the predictions
Updated weekly before the tournament, daily during. See how probabilities shift as we get closer to kickoff.