World Cup 2026 Predictions
Tournament winner tracker
Simulations: 10,000
Updated: 14h ago
5 AI models predict tournament outcomes via Monte Carlo simulation. Each model has unique biases we've measured through behavioral fingerprinting.
Who will win the World Cup?
5 AI models. 10,000 simulations each. Here's what they predict.
4/5 Models Agree
🏴
England
9.5%5-model raw average
Runner-up predictions
🇦🇷
Argentina
5 models: GPT-5.4, GPT-5.5, Claude, Gemini, Grok
Win probability by model
One bar per model. Bar length = that model's estimated chance the team wins the tournament. Toggle models on/off to compare.
0%
4%
8%
11%
15%
1🏴England9.5%
2🇦🇷Argentina9.1%
3🇵🇹Portugal7.8%
4🇩🇪Germany6.5%
5🇪🇸Spain6.4%
6🇳🇱Netherlands6.3%
7🇫🇷France5.6%
8🇨🇴Colombia4.3%
9🇧🇷Brazil4.0%
10🇺🇾Uruguay2.6%
11🇭🇷Croatia2.4%
12🇨🇭Switzerland2.2%
GPT-5.4
GPT-5.5
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 3
Predicted tournament path
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Predicted champion
🏴🏆
England
9.5% to win
vs predicted runner-up 🇦🇷 Argentina (9.1%)
Final
2 teams
🏴ENG9.5%
🇦🇷ARG9.1%
Semi Finals
4 teams
🏴ENG9.5%
🇦🇷ARG9.1%
🇵🇹POR7.8%
🇩🇪GER6.5%
Quarter Finals
8 teams
🏴ENG9.5%
🇦🇷ARG9.1%
🇵🇹POR7.8%
🇩🇪GER6.5%
🇪🇸ESP6.4%
🇳🇱NED6.3%
🇫🇷FRA5.6%
🇨🇴COL4.3%
Round of 16
16 teams
🏴ENG9.5%
🇦🇷ARG9.1%
🇵🇹POR7.8%
🇩🇪GER6.5%
🇪🇸ESP6.4%
🇳🇱NED6.3%
🇫🇷FRA5.6%
🇨🇴COL4.3%
🇧🇷BRA4.0%
🇺🇾URU2.6%
🇭🇷CRO2.4%
🇨🇭SUI2.2%
🏴NOR2.0%
🇧🇪BEL1.9%
🏴ALG1.6%
🏴AUT1.6%
Round of 32
32 teams
🏴ENG9.5%
🇦🇷ARG9.1%
🇵🇹POR7.8%
🇩🇪GER6.5%
🇪🇸ESP6.4%
🇳🇱NED6.3%
🇫🇷FRA5.6%
🇨🇴COL4.3%
🇧🇷BRA4.0%
🇺🇾URU2.6%
🇭🇷CRO2.4%
🇨🇭SUI2.2%
🏴NOR2.0%
🇧🇪BEL1.9%
🏴ALG1.6%
🏴AUT1.6%
🏴ECU1.6%
🇲🇽MEX1.5%
🇲🇦MAR1.5%
🏴TUR1.5%
🇸🇳SEN1.4%
🇯🇵JPN1.3%
🇨🇦CAN1.3%
🇰🇷KOR1.1%
🏴IRN1.1%
🇺🇸USA1.0%
🏴PAR1.0%
🏴SWE0.9%
🏴EGY0.9%
🏴CZE0.9%
🇦🇺AUS0.8%
🏴CIV0.8%
Compare by model:
Full team rankings
| # | Team ↕ | Raw Avg ↕ | 5.4 ↕ | 5.5 ↕ | Claude ↕ | Gemini ↕ | Grok ↕ | Spread ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🏴EnglandENG | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 11.4% | 7.6pp |
| 2 | 🇦🇷ArgentinaARG | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 6.1pp |
| 3 | 🇵🇹PortugalPOR | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 1.6pp |
| 4 | 🇩🇪GermanyGER | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 7.3% | 5.4pp |
| 5 | 🇪🇸SpainESP | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 7.2% | 5.0pp |
| 6 | 🇳🇱NetherlandsNED | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 4.0pp |
| 7 | 🇫🇷FranceFRA | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.1pp |
| 8 | 🇨🇴ColombiaCOL | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 3.0pp |
| 9 | 🇧🇷BrazilBRA | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 2.1pp |
| 10 | 🇺🇾UruguayURU | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.0pp |
| 11 | 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4pp |
| 12 | 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSUI | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8pp |
| 13 | 🇳🇴NorwayNOR | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0pp |
| 14 | 🇧🇪BelgiumBEL | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4pp |
| 15 | 🏴AlgeriaALG | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.9pp |
| 16 | 🇦🇹AustriaAUT | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4pp |
| 17 | 🇪🇨EcuadorECU | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4pp |
| 18 | 🇲🇽MexicoMEX | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2.0pp |
| 19 | 🇲🇦MoroccoMAR | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.7pp |
| 20 | 🇹🇷TurkeyTUR | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4pp |
| 21 | 🇸🇳SenegalSEN | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 2.6pp |
| 22 | 🇯🇵JapanJPN | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.4pp |
| 23 | 🇨🇦CanadaCAN | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0pp |
| 24 | 🇰🇷South KoreaKOR | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7pp |
| 25 | 🏴IranIRN | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.2pp |
| 26 | 🇺🇸United StatesUSA | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.5pp |
| 27 | 🇵🇾ParaguayPAR | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.0pp |
| 28 | 🇸🇪SwedenSWE | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7pp |
| 29 | 🏴EgyptEGY | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.3pp |
| 30 | 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCZE | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8pp |
| 31 | 🇦🇺AustraliaAUS | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8pp |
| 32 | 🏴Ivory CoastCIV | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.9pp |
| 33 | 🏴DR CongoCOD | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.3pp |
| 34 | 🏴BosniaBIH | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7pp |
| 35 | 🏴UzbekistanUZB | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 1.5pp |
| 36 | 🇬🇭GhanaGHA | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 1.5pp |
| 37 | 🏴Cape VerdeCPV | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.0pp |
| 38 | 🏴ScotlandSCO | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.4pp |
| 39 | 🏴PanamaPAN | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6pp |
| 40 | 🏴Saudi ArabiaKSA | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7pp |
| 41 | 🏴IraqIRQ | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.9pp |
| 42 | 🏴South AfricaRSA | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7pp |
| 43 | 🏴JordanJOR | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9pp |
| 44 | 🏴New ZealandNZL | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9pp |
| 45 | 🏴TunisiaTUN | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5pp |
| 46 | 🏴QatarQAT | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4pp |
| 47 | 🏴HaitiHAI | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4pp |
| 48 | 🏴CuracaoCUW | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4pp |
1🏴England
9.5%
spread: 7.6pp
2🇦🇷Argentina
9.1%
spread: 6.1pp
3🇵🇹Portugal
7.8%
spread: 1.6pp
4🇩🇪Germany
6.5%
spread: 5.4pp
5🇪🇸Spain
6.4%
spread: 5.0pp
6🇳🇱Netherlands
6.3%
spread: 4.0pp
7🇫🇷France
5.6%
spread: 3.1pp
8🇨🇴Colombia
4.3%
spread: 3.0pp
9🇧🇷Brazil
4.0%
spread: 2.1pp
10🇺🇾Uruguay
2.6%
spread: 1.0pp
11🇭🇷Croatia
2.4%
spread: 1.4pp
12🇨🇭Switzerland
2.2%
spread: 0.8pp
13🇳🇴Norway
2.0%
spread: 1.0pp
14🇧🇪Belgium
1.9%
spread: 1.4pp
15🏴Algeria
1.6%
spread: 1.9pp
16🇦🇹Austria
1.6%
spread: 0.4pp
17🇪🇨Ecuador
1.6%
spread: 0.4pp
18🇲🇽Mexico
1.5%
spread: 2.0pp
19🇲🇦Morocco
1.5%
spread: 1.7pp
20🇹🇷Turkey
1.5%
spread: 0.4pp
21🇸🇳Senegal
1.4%
spread: 2.6pp
22🇯🇵Japan
1.3%
spread: 1.4pp
23🇨🇦Canada
1.3%
spread: 1.0pp
24🇰🇷South Korea
1.1%
spread: 0.7pp
25🏴Iran
1.1%
spread: 1.2pp
26🇺🇸United States
1.0%
spread: 1.5pp
27🇵🇾Paraguay
1.0%
spread: 1.0pp
28🇸🇪Sweden
0.9%
spread: 0.7pp
29🏴Egypt
0.9%
spread: 1.3pp
30🇨🇿Czech Republic
0.9%
spread: 0.8pp
31🇦🇺Australia
0.8%
spread: 0.8pp
32🏴Ivory Coast
0.8%
spread: 0.9pp
33🏴DR Congo
0.8%
spread: 1.3pp
34🏴Bosnia
0.8%
spread: 0.7pp
35🏴Uzbekistan
0.8%
spread: 1.5pp
36🇬🇭Ghana
0.7%
spread: 1.5pp
37🏴Cape Verde
0.6%
spread: 1.0pp
38🏴Scotland
0.5%
spread: 1.4pp
39🏴Panama
0.5%
spread: 0.6pp
40🏴Saudi Arabia
0.4%
spread: 0.7pp
41🏴Iraq
0.4%
spread: 0.9pp
42🏴South Africa
0.4%
spread: 0.7pp
43🏴Jordan
0.4%
spread: 0.9pp
44🏴New Zealand
0.3%
spread: 0.9pp
45🏴Tunisia
0.3%
spread: 0.5pp
46🏴Qatar
0.3%
spread: 0.4pp
47🏴Haiti
0.2%
spread: 0.4pp
48🏴Curacao
0.2%
spread: 0.4pp
Showing 48 of 48 teams • Click row to expand
How it works
1️⃣
Identical input
Every model receives the same data — FIFA rankings, recent form, injuries, and news. No model does independent research, so any difference between predictions comes purely from how that model reasons.
2️⃣
Match predictions
Each model predicts win/draw/loss probabilities for every possible match. Different models reach different answers from the same evidence.
3️⃣
Monte Carlo
10,000 tournament simulations per model. Random sampling based on probabilities gives win/advance rates.
Edge prediction coming soon
We're developing a bias-corrected ensemble that weights each AI based on its known blind spots. For now, predictions show raw model outputs. Learn about The Edge methodology →
Follow the predictions
Updated weekly before the tournament, daily during. See how probabilities shift as we get closer to kickoff.