MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Netherlands vs Japan

World Cup · Sunday, June 14, 2026

8:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Netherlands47%
Draw28%
Japan26%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Netherlands46%
Draw28%
Japan27%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Netherlands45%
Draw28%
Japan27%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Netherlands51%
Draw27%
Japan22%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Netherlands44%
Draw26%
Japan30%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Netherlands44%
Draw29%
Japan27%

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Netherlands listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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