Predictions Locked
Netherlands vs Japan
World Cup · Sunday, June 14, 2026
8:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Netherlands47%
Draw28%
Japan26%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Netherlands46%
Draw28%
Japan27%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Netherlands45%
Draw28%
Japan27%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Netherlands51%
Draw27%
Japan22%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Netherlands44%
Draw26%
Japan30%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Netherlands44%
Draw29%
Japan27%
Predicted scoreline
1-01-1
13.8%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0
Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Netherlands listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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