MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Sweden vs Tunisia

World Cup · Monday, June 15, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Sweden48%
Draw30%
Tunisia22%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Sweden48%
Draw30%
Tunisia23%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Sweden45%
Draw32%
Tunisia23%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Sweden52%
Draw29%
Tunisia19%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Sweden46%
Draw31%
Tunisia23%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Sweden47%
Draw28%
Tunisia25%

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.1%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Sweden listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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