Spain vs Cape Verde
World Cup · Monday, June 15, 2026
4:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Spain85%
Draw10%
Cape Verde4%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Spain85%
Draw11%
Cape Verde5%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Spain88%
Draw9%
Cape Verde3%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Spain82%
Draw12%
Cape Verde6%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Spain88%
Draw9%
Cape Verde3%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Spain82%
Draw12%
Cape Verde6%
Predicted scoreline
2-02-0
23.4%
1-0
20.3%
3-0
17.7%
4-0
10.0%
0-0
9.3%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 2-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 2-0GPT-5.4 2-0Grok 3 2-0
Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Spain listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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