MBModelBall

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

World Cup · Monday, June 15, 2026

10:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Saudi Arabia13%
Draw22%
Uruguay66%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Saudi Arabia13%
Draw22%
Uruguay66%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Saudi Arabia13%
Draw22%
Uruguay65%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Saudi Arabia15%
Draw23%
Uruguay62%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Saudi Arabia10%
Draw18%
Uruguay72%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Saudi Arabia13%
Draw23%
Uruguay64%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (10pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Fingerprint Prediction
gemini shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

0-1
0-1
15.3%
0-2
14.7%
1-1
10.8%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
8.8%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-2GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Saudi Arabia listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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