Iraq vs Norway
World Cup · Tuesday, June 16, 2026
10:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Iraq8%
Draw15%
Norway77%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Iraq8%
Draw15%
Norway77%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Iraq8%
Draw16%
Norway76%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Iraq5%
Draw15%
Norway80%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Iraq8%
Draw17%
Norway75%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Iraq9%
Draw13%
Norway78%
Predicted scoreline
0-20-2
19.1%
0-1
18.0%
0-3
13.1%
0-0
9.7%
1-1
7.1%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-2GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 0-2
Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Iraq listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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