MBModelBall

Iraq vs Norway

World Cup · Tuesday, June 16, 2026

10:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Iraq8%
Draw15%
Norway77%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Iraq8%
Draw15%
Norway77%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Iraq8%
Draw16%
Norway76%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Iraq5%
Draw15%
Norway80%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Iraq8%
Draw17%
Norway75%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Iraq9%
Draw13%
Norway78%

Predicted scoreline

0-2
0-2
19.1%
0-1
18.0%
0-3
13.1%
0-0
9.7%
1-1
7.1%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-2GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 0-2

Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Iraq listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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