MBModelBall

Austria vs Jordan

World Cup · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

4:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

View current leaderboard standings →

Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Austria70%
Draw19%
Jordan11%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Austria68%
Draw20%
Jordan12%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Austria76%
Draw17%
Jordan7%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Austria68%
Draw20%
Jordan12%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Austria62%
Draw22%
Jordan16%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Austria66%
Draw21%
Jordan13%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (14pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-0
16.2%
2-0
16.0%
3-0
10.0%
0-0
10.0%
1-1
9.8%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 2-0

Goal expectancy 2.40 per match (default — no totals market); split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Austria listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

Want Deeper Analysis?

Get predictions before each match with full divergence analysis, model fingerprint insights, and real-time updates.