MBModelBall

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

World Cup · Thursday, June 18, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Uzbekistan12%
Draw22%
Colombia67%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Uzbekistan12%
Draw22%
Colombia67%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Uzbekistan10%
Draw20%
Colombia70%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Uzbekistan11%
Draw22%
Colombia67%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Uzbekistan8%
Draw22%
Colombia70%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Uzbekistan17%
Draw24%
Colombia59%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (11pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

0-1
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
7.4%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-2GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.63 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Uzbekistan listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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