MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Czech Republic vs South Africa

World Cup · Thursday, June 18, 2026

4:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Czech Republic49%
Draw28%
South Africa23%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Czech Republic48%
Draw28%
South Africa23%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Czech Republic51%
Draw28%
South Africa21%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Czech Republic48%
Draw30%
South Africa22%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Czech Republic46%
Draw29%
South Africa25%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Czech Republic48%
Draw27%
South Africa25%

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.49 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Czech Republic listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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