MBModelBall

Tunisia vs Japan

World Cup · Sunday, June 21, 2026

4:00 AM UTC

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MODEL CONSENSUS

0
pick Tunisia
0
pick Draw
4
pick Japan

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Japan 59%
Tunisia16%
Draw25%
Japan59%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Tunisia16%
Draw25%
Japan59%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Tunisia17%
Draw25%
Japan58%

Grok 3Most divergent

The Contrarian

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Tunisia19%
Draw26%
Japan55%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

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Tunisia13%
Draw25%
Japan62%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

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Tunisia15%
Draw23%
Japan62%

Predicted scoreline

0-1
0-1
13.1%
0-2
12.3%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.50 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Tunisia listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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