Norway vs Senegal
World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026
12:00 AM UTC
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grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Relevant dimension: Team narrative override
MODEL CONSENSUS
All Six Predictions
The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Model Weights
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Grok 3Most divergent
The Contrarian
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Why They Differ
Tracks whether predictions reflect absorbed historical narrative rather than current form data.
The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.
Predicted scoreline
1-0Goal expectancy 2.64 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Norway listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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