MBModelBall

Jordan vs Algeria

World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026

3:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 3 days

MODEL CONSENSUS

0
pick Jordan
0
pick Draw
4
pick Algeria

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Algeria 59%
Jordan17%
Draw24%
Algeria59%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Jordan17%
Draw24%
Algeria59%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Jordan15%
Draw24%
Algeria61%

Claude Sonnet 4.6Most divergent

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Jordan15%
Draw22%
Algeria63%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Jordan18%
Draw25%
Algeria57%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Jordan18%
Draw26%
Algeria56%

Predicted scoreline

0-1
1-1
11.8%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.65 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Jordan listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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