MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Jordan vs Algeria

World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026

3:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Jordan16%
Draw24%
Algeria61%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Jordan16%
Draw24%
Algeria61%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Jordan17%
Draw24%
Algeria59%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Jordan15%
Draw24%
Algeria61%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Jordan13%
Draw22%
Algeria65%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Jordan18%
Draw25%
Algeria57%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (8pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Fingerprint Prediction
claude shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

0-2
0-2
11.8%
0-1
11.7%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.67 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Jordan listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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