MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026

5:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Portugal82%
Draw12%
Uzbekistan6%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Portugal81%
Draw13%
Uzbekistan7%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Portugal78%
Draw14%
Uzbekistan8%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Portugal78%
Draw13%
Uzbekistan9%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Portugal86%
Draw10%
Uzbekistan4%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Portugal82%
Draw13%
Uzbekistan5%

Predicted scoreline

2-0
2-0
13.3%
3-0
12.3%
1-0
9.0%
4-0
8.6%
2-1
7.9%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 2-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 2-0GPT-5.4 2-0Grok 3 2-0

Goal expectancy 3.37 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Portugal listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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