Portugal vs Uzbekistan
World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026
5:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 3 days
grok overweights market odds
Relevant dimension: Odds integration
MODEL CONSENSUS
All Six Predictions
The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Model Weights
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Grok 3Most divergent
The Contrarian
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Why They Differ
Measures ability to update predictions toward market consensus when odds diverge from priors.
The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.
Predicted scoreline
2-0Goal expectancy 3.06 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Portugal listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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