MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Colombia vs DR Congo

World Cup · Wednesday, June 24, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Colombia60%
Draw24%
DR Congo16%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Colombia59%
Draw25%
DR Congo17%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Colombia54%
Draw25%
DR Congo21%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Colombia67%
Draw23%
DR Congo10%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Colombia55%
Draw25%
DR Congo20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Colombia58%
Draw26%
DR Congo16%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (13pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-0
14.1%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.41 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Colombia listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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