MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Czech Republic vs Mexico

World Cup · Thursday, June 25, 2026

1:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Czech Republic28%
Draw26%
Mexico46%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Czech Republic28%
Draw26%
Mexico46%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Czech Republic26%
Draw24%
Mexico50%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Czech Republic29%
Draw27%
Mexico44%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Czech Republic29%
Draw28%
Mexico43%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Czech Republic27%
Draw26%
Mexico47%

Predicted scoreline

0-1
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.7%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.58 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Czech Republic listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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