Predictions Locked
Ecuador vs Germany
World Cup · Thursday, June 25, 2026
8:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Ecuador18%
Draw24%
Germany58%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Ecuador16%
Draw20%
Germany64%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Ecuador19%
Draw23%
Germany58%
Predicted scoreline
0-21-1
10.8%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
6.7%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-2GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 1-2
Goal expectancy 3.02 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Ecuador listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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