MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Ecuador vs Germany

World Cup · Thursday, June 25, 2026

8:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Ecuador18%
Draw24%
Germany58%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Ecuador18%
Draw22%
Germany60%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Ecuador16%
Draw20%
Germany64%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Ecuador19%
Draw23%
Germany58%

Predicted scoreline

0-2
1-1
10.8%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-3
6.7%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-2GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 1-2

Goal expectancy 3.02 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Ecuador listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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