MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

World Cup · Saturday, June 27, 2026

12:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Cape Verde36%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia33%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Cape Verde36%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia33%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Cape Verde34%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia35%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Cape Verde34%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia35%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Cape Verde38%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia31%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Cape Verde38%
Draw31%
Saudi Arabia31%

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.7%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.1%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.43 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Cape Verde listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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