MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Algeria vs Austria

World Cup · Sunday, June 28, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Algeria27%
Draw35%
Austria38%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Algeria27%
Draw35%
Austria38%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Algeria25%
Draw32%
Austria43%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Algeria27%
Draw34%
Austria39%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Algeria26%
Draw34%
Austria40%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Algeria26%
Draw38%
Austria36%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Algeria29%
Draw37%
Austria34%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (9pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Fingerprint Prediction
gemini shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

0-1
0-0
16.4%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
14.6%
1-0
11.3%
0-2
8.4%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-1GPT-5.5 0-1Grok 3 0-0

Goal expectancy 1.89 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Algeria listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 20% · GPT 20% · gpt55 20% · Claude 20% · Gemini 20%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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