MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

South Africa vs Canada

World Cup · Sunday, June 28, 2026

7:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

South Africa19%
Draw26%
Canada55%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

South Africa19%
Draw26%
Canada55%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

South Africa23%
Draw29%
Canada48%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

South Africa18%
Draw28%
Canada54%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

South Africa18%
Draw25%
Canada57%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

South Africa19%
Draw27%
Canada54%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

South Africa14%
Draw24%
Canada62%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (14pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

0-1
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.7%
0-2
11.4%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
9.4%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-1GPT-5.5 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.46 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. South Africa listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · gpt55 25% · Claude 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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