Brazil vs Japan
World Cup · Monday, June 29, 2026
5:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Fingerprint Analysis
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Predicted scoreline
1-0Goal expectancy 2.52 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Brazil listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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