MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Netherlands vs Morocco

World Cup · Tuesday, June 30, 2026

1:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Netherlands43%
Draw30%
Morocco27%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Netherlands42%
Draw31%
Morocco28%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Netherlands44%
Draw29%
Morocco27%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Netherlands47%
Draw30%
Morocco23%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Netherlands40%
Draw30%
Morocco30%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Netherlands40%
Draw30%
Morocco30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Netherlands38%
Draw34%
Morocco28%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (9pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0GPT-5.5 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.43 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Netherlands listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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