Predictions Locked
Argentina vs Switzerland
World Cup · Sunday, July 12, 2026
1:00 AM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Argentina56%
Draw28%
Switzerland16%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Argentina55%
Draw28%
Switzerland16%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Argentina61%
Draw26%
Switzerland13%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Argentina54%
Draw28%
Switzerland18%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Argentina55%
Draw28%
Switzerland17%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Argentina55%
Draw27%
Switzerland18%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Argentina52%
Draw32%
Switzerland16%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (9pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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