MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Argentina vs Switzerland

World Cup · Sunday, July 12, 2026

1:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Argentina56%
Draw28%
Switzerland16%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Argentina55%
Draw28%
Switzerland16%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Argentina61%
Draw26%
Switzerland13%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Argentina54%
Draw28%
Switzerland18%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Argentina55%
Draw28%
Switzerland17%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Argentina55%
Draw27%
Switzerland18%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Argentina52%
Draw32%
Switzerland16%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (9pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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