MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Brazil vs Norway

World Cup · Sunday, July 5, 2026

8:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Brazil56%
Draw25%
Norway19%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Brazil55%
Draw25%
Norway20%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Brazil52%
Draw27%
Norway21%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Brazil58%
Draw24%
Norway18%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Brazil50%
Draw25%
Norway25%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Brazil52%
Draw25%
Norway23%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Brazil61%
Draw25%
Norway14%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (11pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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