Predictions Locked
Brazil vs Norway
World Cup · Sunday, July 5, 2026
8:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Brazil56%
Draw25%
Norway19%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Brazil55%
Draw25%
Norway20%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Brazil52%
Draw27%
Norway21%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Brazil58%
Draw24%
Norway18%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Brazil50%
Draw25%
Norway25%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Brazil52%
Draw25%
Norway23%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Brazil61%
Draw25%
Norway14%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (11pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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