Predictions Locked
England vs Argentina
World Cup · Wednesday, July 15, 2026
7:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
England35%
Draw32%
Argentina33%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
England35%
Draw32%
Argentina33%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Grok 3
The Contrarian
England37%
Draw33%
Argentina30%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
England34%
Draw32%
Argentina34%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
England34%
Draw31%
Argentina35%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
England35%
Draw30%
Argentina35%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
England34%
Draw34%
Argentina32%
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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