Predictions Locked
England vs DR Congo
World Cup · Wednesday, July 1, 2026
4:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
England74%
Draw18%
DR Congo8%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
England73%
Draw19%
DR Congo9%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Grok 3
The Contrarian
England83%
Draw13%
DR Congo4%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
England71%
Draw21%
DR Congo8%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
England68%
Draw21%
DR Congo11%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
England69%
Draw20%
DR Congo11%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
England72%
Draw19%
DR Congo9%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (15pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 34% · GPT 22% · gpt55 15% · Claude 15% · Gemini 15%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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