Predictions Locked
France vs England
World Cup · Saturday, July 18, 2026
9:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
France45%
Draw27%
England29%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
France44%
Draw27%
England30%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
France39%
Draw29%
England32%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
France46%
Draw24%
England30%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
France49%
Draw26%
England25%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
France45%
Draw28%
England27%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
France42%
Draw27%
England31%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (10pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
GPT-5.4
Fingerprint Prediction
gpt54 shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · gpt55 18% · Claude 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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