Predictions Locked
Mexico vs England
World Cup · Monday, July 6, 2026
12:00 AM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Mexico26%
Draw30%
England45%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Mexico26%
Draw30%
England45%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Mexico27%
Draw32%
England41%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Mexico28%
Draw32%
England40%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Mexico27%
Draw30%
England43%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Mexico27%
Draw30%
England43%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Mexico22%
Draw27%
England51%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (11pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Fingerprint Prediction
claude shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 25% · GPT 25% · gpt55 25% · Claude 25%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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