MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Mexico vs England

World Cup · Monday, July 6, 2026

12:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Mexico26%
Draw30%
England45%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Mexico26%
Draw30%
England45%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Mexico27%
Draw32%
England41%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Mexico28%
Draw32%
England40%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Mexico27%
Draw30%
England43%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Mexico27%
Draw30%
England43%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Mexico22%
Draw27%
England51%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (11pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Fingerprint Prediction
claude shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · gpt55 25% · Claude 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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