MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Mexico vs South Korea

World Cup · Friday, June 19, 2026

1:00 AM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Mexico45%
Draw30%
South Korea26%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Mexico44%
Draw30%
South Korea27%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Mexico42%
Draw29%
South Korea29%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Mexico42%
Draw28%
South Korea30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Mexico42%
Draw31%
South Korea27%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Mexico49%
Draw30%
South Korea21%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (9pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
10.9%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.0%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.29 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Mexico listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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