Predictions Locked
Norway vs England
World Cup · Saturday, July 11, 2026
9:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Norway24%
Draw26%
England50%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Norway24%
Draw26%
England50%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Norway24%
Draw27%
England49%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Norway24%
Draw25%
England51%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Norway27%
Draw28%
England45%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Norway24%
Draw25%
England51%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Norway22%
Draw25%
England53%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (8pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 20% · GPT 20% · gpt55 20% · Claude 20% · Gemini 20%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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