MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

Norway vs England

World Cup · Saturday, July 11, 2026

9:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Norway24%
Draw26%
England50%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Norway24%
Draw26%
England50%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Norway24%
Draw27%
England49%

GPT-5.5

The Evolved Baseline

Norway24%
Draw25%
England51%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Norway27%
Draw28%
England45%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Norway24%
Draw25%
England51%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Norway22%
Draw25%
England53%

Fingerprint Analysis

Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (8pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 20% · GPT 20% · gpt55 20% · Claude 20% · Gemini 20%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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