Predictions Locked
Portugal vs Croatia
World Cup · Thursday, July 2, 2026
11:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Portugal52%
Draw27%
Croatia21%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Portugal52%
Draw27%
Croatia22%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
Portugal45%
Draw33%
Croatia22%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Portugal52%
Draw27%
Croatia21%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Portugal57%
Draw26%
Croatia17%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Portugal47%
Draw28%
Croatia25%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Portugal50%
Draw26%
Croatia24%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (12pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok overweights market odds
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · gpt55 18% · Claude 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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