Predictions Locked
Portugal vs Spain
World Cup · Monday, July 6, 2026
7:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Portugal28%
Draw28%
Spain44%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Portugal28%
Draw28%
Spain44%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Portugal30%
Draw28%
Spain42%
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Portugal24%
Draw29%
Spain47%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Portugal33%
Draw29%
Spain38%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Portugal24%
Draw26%
Spain50%
Fingerprint Analysis
Pre-Match Divergence
MEDIUM (12pp spread)
Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Fingerprint Prediction
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Once the match is scored, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted model accuracy. This is how we prove (or disprove) that knowing biases helps prediction.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 25% · GPT 25% · gpt55 25% · Claude 25%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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