Predictions Locked
Spain vs Argentina
World Cup · Sunday, July 19, 2026
7:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Spain40%
Draw30%
Argentina30%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
Spain40%
Draw30%
Argentina31%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Spain39%
Draw31%
Argentina30%
GPT-5.5
The Evolved Baseline
Spain40%
Draw29%
Argentina31%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
Spain41%
Draw30%
Argentina29%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Spain38%
Draw30%
Argentina32%
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · gpt55 18% · Claude 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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