Predictions Locked
USA vs Australia
World Cup · Friday, June 19, 2026
7:00 PM UTC
Match completed
WHAT WE LEARNED
Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.
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The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
USA54%
Draw24%
Australia21%
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
USA54%
Draw25%
Australia22%
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
USA50%
Draw26%
Australia24%
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
USA55%
Draw26%
Australia19%
Grok 3
The Contrarian
USA58%
Draw23%
Australia19%
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
USA52%
Draw23%
Australia25%
Predicted scoreline
1-01-1
12.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0
Goal expectancy 2.70 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. USA listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Odds Divergence Context
Market gives underdog >35% probability
Weights:
Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%
Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)
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