MBModelBall
Predictions Locked

USA vs Australia

World Cup · Friday, June 19, 2026

7:00 PM UTC

Match completed

WHAT WE LEARNED

Match is complete. Results and accuracy analysis will be available once the match has been officially scored.

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Predictions Review

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

USA54%
Draw24%
Australia21%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

USA54%
Draw25%
Australia22%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

USA50%
Draw26%
Australia24%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

USA55%
Draw26%
Australia19%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

USA58%
Draw23%
Australia19%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

USA52%
Draw23%
Australia25%

Predicted scoreline

1-0
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 1-0Gemini 3.1 Pro 1-0GPT-5.4 1-0Grok 3 1-0

Goal expectancy 2.70 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. USA listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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