MBModelBall
Anthropic

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Behavioral fingerprint from 45,300 evaluation queries

Talent Evaluation Fingerprint

League prestigeClub prestigeDemographicsAge curveTemporal weightTournament pedigreeAttribute typeRole valueRisk toleranceMedia narrativeTactical knowledgeTactical contextFixture difficultyHome advantageUpset IDNarrative overrideOdds integrationForm recencySquad depthKey player absenceStakes & pressurexG integrationClaude Sonnet 4.6

Blue = analytical/counter-bias • Amber = prestige bias/heuristic

Dimension Breakdown

market Cluster

League prestige discount+1.35(very large)
Club prestige halo+0.19(small)
Team narrative override-1.57(very large)
Odds integration-1.57(very large)

temporal Cluster

Age curve encoding+1.06(very large)
Temporal weighting-0.69(large)
Attribute type preference-1.14(very large)
Role value encoding-0.24(medium)
Form recency integration-1.37(very large)

attribute Cluster

Demographic evaluation consistency+0.09(negligible)
Tactical knowledge index+1.73(small)
Tactical context adjustment-1.11(very large)
Expected goals integration-1.57(very large)

contextual Cluster

Tournament pedigree encoding-0.47(medium)
Risk tolerance in selection-0.37(medium)
Media narrative anchoring-0.16(small)
Fixture difficulty calibration-1.08(very large)
Home advantage calibration+0.86(very large)
Upset identification-1.57(very large)
Squad depth & fatigue-1.57(very large)
Key player absence-1.09(very large)
Stakes & pressure calibration-1.57(very large)

Prediction Calibration

Fixture difficulty calibrationSevere
h = -1.08 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Home advantage calibrationSevere
h = 0.86 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Upset identificationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=30)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Team narrative overrideSevere
h = -1.57 (n=40)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Odds integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=15)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Form recency integrationSevere
h = -1.37 (n=100)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Squad depth & fatigueSevere
h = -1.57 (n=80)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Key player absenceSevere
h = -1.09 (n=53)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Stakes & pressure calibrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=51)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Expected goals integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=46)
-1.57
0
+1.57

Tactical Knowledge Index

8.3/ 10

Excellent tactical knowledge

Domain Breakdown

player profile8.0
system compatibility6.0
manager philosophy8.7
temporal evolution8.7
definitional10.0

TKI measures tactical understanding via 25 scenario-based questions scored 0-3 by Claude Opus.

Ensemble Role

Upweighted for:

  • Standard matches

Downweighted for:

  • Host nation matches (severe PC02 over-adjustment)
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