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Gemini 3.1 Pro

Behavioral fingerprint from 45,300 evaluation queries

Talent Evaluation Fingerprint

League prestigeClub prestigeDemographicsAge curveTemporal weightTournament pedigreeAttribute typeRole valueRisk toleranceMedia narrativeTactical knowledgeTactical contextFixture difficultyHome advantageUpset IDNarrative overrideOdds integrationForm recencySquad depthKey player absenceStakes & pressurexG integrationGemini 3.1 Pro

Blue = analytical/counter-bias • Amber = prestige bias/heuristic

Dimension Breakdown

market Cluster

League prestige discount+1.41(very large)
Club prestige halo+0.04(negligible)
Team narrative override-1.57(very large)
Odds integration-1.57(very large)

temporal Cluster

Age curve encoding+0.75(large)
Temporal weighting-0.47(medium)
Attribute type preference-0.31(medium)
Role value encoding+1.27(very large)
Form recency integration-1.22(very large)

attribute Cluster

Demographic evaluation consistency+1.14(very large)
Tactical knowledge index+3.47(medium)
Tactical context adjustment-0.70(large)
Expected goals integration-1.57(very large)

contextual Cluster

Tournament pedigree encoding-0.57(large)
Risk tolerance in selection-0.96(very large)
Media narrative anchoring-0.00(negligible)
Fixture difficulty calibration-0.04(negligible)
Home advantage calibration+0.81(very large)
Upset identification-1.57(very large)
Squad depth & fatigue-1.07(very large)
Key player absence-1.30(very large)
Stakes & pressure calibration-1.57(very large)

Prediction Calibration

Fixture difficulty calibrationCalibrated
h = -0.04 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Home advantage calibrationSevere
h = 0.81 (n=44)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Upset identificationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=30)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Team narrative overrideSevere
h = -1.57 (n=34)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Odds integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=15)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Form recency integrationSevere
h = -1.22 (n=99)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Squad depth & fatigueSevere
h = -1.07 (n=80)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Key player absenceSevere
h = -1.30 (n=53)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Stakes & pressure calibrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=58)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Expected goals integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=46)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Note: Home advantage calibration (PC02): h=+0.81, n=44. Gemini over-adjusts for host-nation advantage at nearly the same magnitude as Claude. On host-nation matches, Gemini receives approximately 18% weight in the ensemble.

Tactical Knowledge Index

6.5/ 10

Good tactical knowledge

Domain Breakdown

system compatibility6.7
player profile5.3
temporal evolution2.7
manager philosophy8.7
definitional9.3

TKI measures tactical understanding via 25 scenario-based questions scored 0-3 by Claude Opus.

Ensemble Role

Upweighted for:

  • Standard matches

Downweighted for:

  • Host nation matches (PC02 over-adjustment, ~18% weight)
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