MBModelBall
OpenAI

GPT-5.4

Behavioral fingerprint from 45,300 evaluation queries

Talent Evaluation Fingerprint

League prestigeClub prestigeDemographicsAge curveTemporal weightTournament pedigreeAttribute typeRole valueRisk toleranceMedia narrativeTactical knowledgeTactical contextFixture difficultyHome advantageUpset IDNarrative overrideOdds integrationForm recencySquad depthKey player absenceStakes & pressurexG integrationGPT-5.4

Blue = analytical/counter-bias • Amber = prestige bias/heuristic

Dimension Breakdown

market Cluster

League prestige discount+1.37(very large)
Club prestige halo+0.65(large)
Team narrative override-1.57(very large)
Odds integration-1.05(very large)

temporal Cluster

Age curve encoding+0.75(large)
Temporal weighting-0.61(large)
Attribute type preference-0.75(large)
Role value encoding-0.58(large)
Form recency integration-1.57(very large)

attribute Cluster

Demographic evaluation consistency-0.11(small)
Tactical knowledge index+1.60(small)
Tactical context adjustment-1.30(very large)
Expected goals integration-1.57(very large)

contextual Cluster

Tournament pedigree encoding-0.21(medium)
Risk tolerance in selection-0.70(large)
Media narrative anchoring+0.03(negligible)
Fixture difficulty calibration-0.75(large)
Home advantage calibration+0.12(small)
Upset identification-1.57(very large)
Squad depth & fatigue-1.57(very large)
Key player absence-1.30(very large)
Stakes & pressure calibration-1.57(very large)

Prediction Calibration

Fixture difficulty calibrationSevere
h = -0.75 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Home advantage calibrationCalibrated
h = 0.12 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Upset identificationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=30)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Team narrative overrideSevere
h = -1.57 (n=34)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Odds integrationSevere
h = -1.05 (n=15)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Form recency integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=99)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Squad depth & fatigueSevere
h = -1.57 (n=80)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Key player absenceSevere
h = -1.30 (n=53)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Stakes & pressure calibrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=55)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Expected goals integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=46)
-1.57
0
+1.57

Tactical Knowledge Index

8.4/ 10

Excellent tactical knowledge

Domain Breakdown

system compatibility7.3
temporal evolution8.0
player profile8.0
definitional10.0
manager philosophy8.7

TKI measures tactical understanding via 25 scenario-based questions scored 0-3 by Claude Opus.

Ensemble Role

Upweighted for:

  • Standard matches

Downweighted for:

  • Host nation matches (PC02 miscalibration)
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