MBModelBall
xAI

Grok 3

Behavioral fingerprint from 45,300 evaluation queries

Talent Evaluation Fingerprint

League prestigeClub prestigeDemographicsAge curveTemporal weightTournament pedigreeAttribute typeRole valueRisk toleranceMedia narrativeTactical knowledgeTactical contextFixture difficultyHome advantageUpset IDNarrative overrideOdds integrationForm recencySquad depthKey player absenceStakes & pressurexG integrationGrok 3

Blue = analytical/counter-bias • Amber = prestige bias/heuristic

Dimension Breakdown

market Cluster

League prestige discount+1.18(very large)
Club prestige halo+0.62(large)
Team narrative override-0.03(negligible)
Odds integration+0.64(large)

temporal Cluster

Age curve encoding+0.87(very large)
Temporal weighting-0.61(large)
Attribute type preference-0.47(medium)
Role value encoding-0.00(negligible)
Form recency integration-0.79(large)

attribute Cluster

Demographic evaluation consistency+1.17(very large)
Tactical knowledge index+1.87(small)
Tactical context adjustment-1.44(very large)
Expected goals integration-1.57(very large)

contextual Cluster

Tournament pedigree encoding-0.33(medium)
Risk tolerance in selection-0.88(very large)
Media narrative anchoring+0.12(small)
Fixture difficulty calibration0.00(negligible)
Home advantage calibration-0.99(very large)
Upset identification-1.57(very large)
Squad depth & fatigue-1.25(very large)
Key player absence-1.18(very large)
Stakes & pressure calibration-1.57(very large)

Prediction Calibration

Fixture difficulty calibrationCalibrated
h = 0.00 (n=50)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Home advantage calibrationSevere
h = -0.99 (n=24)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Upset identificationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=30)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Team narrative overrideCalibrated
h = -0.03 (n=35)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Odds integrationSevere
h = 0.64 (n=15)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Form recency integrationSevere
h = -0.79 (n=96)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Squad depth & fatigueSevere
h = -1.25 (n=80)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Key player absenceSevere
h = -1.18 (n=52)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Stakes & pressure calibrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=58)
-1.57
0
+1.57
Expected goals integrationSevere
h = -1.57 (n=46)
-1.57
0
+1.57

Tactical Knowledge Index

8.1/ 10

Excellent tactical knowledge

Domain Breakdown

temporal evolution10.0
player profile6.7
system compatibility6.0
definitional10.0
manager philosophy8.0

TKI measures tactical understanding via 25 scenario-based questions scored 0-3 by Claude Opus.

Ensemble Role

Upweighted for:

  • Fixture difficulty contexts (PC01 perfectly calibrated)
  • Odds divergence (PC05 well-calibrated)

Downweighted for:

  • Host nation matches (PC02 under-adjustment)
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