MBModelBall

Algeria vs Austria

World Cup · Sunday, June 28, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 8 days

⚠️ MODERATE DIVERGENCE13pp spread

grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Relevant dimension: Team narrative override

MODEL CONSENSUS

1
pick Algeria
0
pick Draw
3
pick Austria

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Austria 38%
Algeria32%
Draw31%
Austria38%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Algeria32%
Draw31%
Austria38%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Algeria31%
Draw30%
Austria39%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Algeria30%
Draw30%
Austria40%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Algeria28%
Draw30%
Austria42%

Grok 3Most divergent

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Algeria38%
Draw33%
Austria29%

Why They Differ

Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Explanation
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Relevant fingerprint dimension
Team narrative override

Tracks whether predictions reflect absorbed historical narrative rather than current form data.

The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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