MBModelBall

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

World Cup · Saturday, June 27, 2026

12:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 6 days

⚠️ MODERATE DIVERGENCE10pp spread

claude shows calibration differences on Team narrative override

Relevant dimension: Team narrative override

MODEL CONSENSUS

0
pick Cape Verde
0
pick Draw
4
pick Saudi Arabia

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Saudi Arabia 42%
Cape Verde31%
Draw28%
Saudi Arabia42%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Cape Verde31%
Draw28%
Saudi Arabia42%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Cape Verde31%
Draw29%
Saudi Arabia40%

Claude Sonnet 4.6Most divergent

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Cape Verde28%
Draw25%
Saudi Arabia47%

Grok 3

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Cape Verde31%
Draw27%
Saudi Arabia42%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Cape Verde34%
Draw29%
Saudi Arabia37%

Why They Differ

Most Divergent Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Explanation
claude shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Relevant fingerprint dimension
Team narrative override

Tracks whether predictions reflect absorbed historical narrative rather than current form data.

The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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