MBModelBall

Croatia vs Ghana

World Cup · Saturday, June 27, 2026

9:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 7 days

⚠️ MODERATE DIVERGENCE11pp spread

grok overweights market odds

Relevant dimension: Odds integration

MODEL CONSENSUS

4
pick Croatia
0
pick Draw
0
pick Ghana

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Croatia 55%
Croatia55%
Draw25%
Ghana20%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 39%GPT-5.4: 26%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 18%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 18%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Croatia54%
Draw26%
Ghana20%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Croatia52%
Draw26%
Ghana22%

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Croatia50%
Draw27%
Ghana23%

Grok 3Most divergent

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Croatia61%
Draw23%
Ghana16%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Croatia52%
Draw28%
Ghana20%

Why They Differ

Most Divergent Model
Grok 3
Explanation
grok overweights market odds
Relevant fingerprint dimension
Odds integration

Measures ability to update predictions toward market consensus when odds diverge from priors.

The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.

Ensemble Logic

Odds Divergence Context

Market gives underdog >35% probability

Weights:

Grok 39% · GPT 26% · Claude 18% · Gemini 18%

Active: PC05 (Overconfidence Index)

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